$TSLA Tesla’s Battery Advantage, Part I

The first mass-produced electric vehicles appeared in the U.S. in 1902, introduced by Studebaker, the world’s largest manufacturer of wagons and buggies at the time. While electric vehicles of the time had some key advantages over early gasoline-powered cars, which emitted particularly noxious fumes and were prone to deadly explosions, the first battle between gas and electric cars didn’t last long. The economics of gas cars proved far superior to electric cars, as the advent of Henry Ford’s Model T assembly line in 1913 dropped the price of gas cars to less than half of electric cars, and the discovery of cheap oil in Texas, Oklahoma, and California made filling up the gas tank far cheaper than charging the electric car’s primitive lead-acid battery. Not surprisingly, consumers opted for efficiency and convenience, and the gasoline car became ubiquitous, shaping the world as we know it today.

However, electric vehicles attracted renewed interest in the late 20th century as emissions from the ever-expanding fleet of gasoline cars were linked to climate and public health crises. In addition to the 1960’s introduction of the U.S. Clean Air Act, which mandates increasingly stringent controls on vehicle engine technology and reductions in tailpipe emissions over time, the California Air Resources Board introduced a Zero-Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate in 1990, requiring major automakers to phase in ZEVs over time. While lobbying in the background to overturn the mandate in federal court, the major OEMs produced limited numbers of EVs for California drivers to comply with the law while it was still on the books. Most OEMs created electric versions of existing models, but General Motors’ EV1 was designed as an electric vehicle from inception and became the first mass-produced electric vehicle of the modern era. Later versions introduced a Nickel Metal Hydride (NiMH) battery, which significantly reduced the car’s weight and increased range over the original lead-acid battery version from 60 miles to 105 miles in one charge. Although the revolutionary vehicle seemed to win the hearts of the lucky few who were able to navigate the curiously complicated process of buying one, the program was seen as a money pit by GM executives, due to the high cost of batteries and initial production. Once the ZEV mandate was rejected by a federal court, the Company discontinued the program, took back the cars as the leases expired and crushed them (Highly recommended viewing: Who Killed the Electric Car? EV1 Documentary).

Tesla was started in response to the cancellation of the EV1 program in 2003. As the major OEMs mothballed their EV R&D and pushed hydrogen vehicles as a better alternative (arguably because they knew it was less likely to succeed and disrupt their legacy business), the only way to continue to push forward EV technology was to start a new automotive company, a notoriously difficult venture that had not been successfully attempted in the U.S. for almost a century. However, the willful neglect of the major OEMs to advance EV technology created a window of opportunity for Tesla to carve out a durable competitive advantage by taking the next logical step in automotive battery tech and developing a proprietary battery management system around lithium-ion cells, which not only gave them a fighting chance at survival but may ultimately cement their dominance in a new era of transportation.

Tesla was the first company to use lithium-ion batteries in electric cars. While lithium-ion batteries had greater density and thus held promise for far superior efficiency, performance, and cycle life than previous generations of electric vehicles using lead-acid and NiMH batteries, they were still very expensive and much more difficult to use in automotive applications. Li-ion encompasses a variety of chemistries and form factors with trade-offs around space utilization, cost, density, safety, and longevity. As the first mover in the EV space to use Li-ion, Tesla had the luxury of choosing the best cells for the job, with an eye toward cost and density as well as the potential for improvements over the long run. Tesla ultimately selected Panasonic 18650 cylindrical NCA (Nickel-Cobalt-Aluminum Oxide) cells, which offered an “exceptional combination of cycle life and energy density” (A Bit About Batteries | Tesla). Safety was another key consideration and is one of the biggest advantages over prismatic or pouch cells, as cylindrical cells are designed to rupture if the internal pressure grows too high, mitigating the safety risks from fires or explosions. The cylindrical cells were also the cheapest and most commonly available for use in consumer electronic applications such as laptop computers, as the standardized form factor allowed for faster production and thus lower cost per kilowatt-hour (Lithium Batteries: Cylindrical Versus Prismatic).

The battery pack of the 2008 Tesla Roadster contained 6,831 individual Li-ion cells operating in parallel. The high number of small cells was ideal for limiting the impact of any one cell failure on the overall pack; it was also ideal for cooling as there was more surface area for heat dissipation than there would be with a smaller number of larger prismatic cells. One of Tesla’s key inventions to maximize battery lifetime was a sophisticated liquid cooling system that maintains a favorable temperature for the cells, even under extreme ambient conditions (like you might get from parking in the sun in Abu Dhabi, from recent personal experience). The 53-kwh battery packed roughly twice the power of the EV1’s NiMH battery while weighing slightly less. Together with the Company’s proprietary power electronics, software and motors (which will get their own chapter), the battery management system was capable of delivering enough power to accelerate the Roadster from 0 to 60mph in 3.9 seconds and travel for more than 240 miles in one charge, well in excess of any production electric vehicle capabilities up to that point. Beyond creating a new standard for electric vehicles, the Tesla Roadster stood in a league of its own pushing the boundaries of automotive propulsion, with vastly superior well-to-wheel efficiency and significantly lower carbon emissions than any other technology on the road:

While this performance was good enough to cover 99% of drivers’ daily needs on a single overnight charge, the obvious drawbacks were high cost and lack of cell production capacity. Learning from GM’s premature and costly foray into mass-market EVs, Tesla determined that the best course of action was to first launch a premium sports car and then follow with progressively more affordable models as cell production ramped and the cost of Li-ion cells decreased. Industry cost declines to date have predictably followed Wright’s Law, which observes that for every cumulative doubling of production for a given manufactured good, the cost will fall by a fixed percentage, depending on the product and the industry.

“Lithium-ion battery pack costs worldwide between 2011 and 2030” Source: Statista

Although Tesla sold only 1,000 units of the $109,000 Roadster by January 2010, its impact on the industry was profound. The Roadster’s performance and efficiency led the major OEMs to jumpstart their electrification programs, and electric models started hitting the market again, starting with the Nissan Leaf (which debuted with only 73 miles of range) in December 2010. Bob Lutz, then the vice-chairman of GM, attributed this newfound urgency entirely to Tesla, saying in 2009:

“All the geniuses here at General Motors kept saying lithium-ion technology is ten years away, and Toyota agrees with us—and, boom, along comes Tesla. So I said, ‘How come some teeny little California start-up run by guys who know nothing about the car business can do this, and we can’t?’ That was the crowbar that helped break up the logjam.”

By the time it IPO’d in July 2010, it was clear that Tesla’s first-mover advantage and sole focus on electrified transportation had enabled it to take the lead in harnessing the power of lithium ion batteries for automotive applications, but the competition definitely took notice. In Part II, I will explore how Tesla has been able to maintain and arguably widen their lead in battery technology, despite intensifying competition over the past decade, by deepening their involvement in battery cell design and manufacturing.

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Opening the File on Tesla $TSLA

Tesla is a widely known company, yet its business is still widely misunderstood.

Tesla is a widely known company, yet its business is still widely misunderstood. From the outside, it may look like one of many auto manufacturers, selling a handful of models into a fiercely competitive market, operating at a much smaller scale than the leading OEMs while barely breaking even. Paradoxically, Tesla has a larger market capitalization than the next three largest OEMs combined, which together delivered about 51x more cars than Tesla in 2020, generating more net income than Tesla’s sales for the year:

World’s Largest Automakers by Market Cap

CompanyMarket Cap2020 Deliveries2020 Sales2020 Net Income2020 P/S2020 P/E
Tesla$714B499,550$31.5B$0.7B22.6x1020x
Toyota$212B9,528,438$257B$14.8B0.82x14.3x
Volkswagen$157B9,305,400$272B$10.8B0.57x14.5x
General Motors$80B6,830,000$122B$6.4B0.65x12.5x

Just as there are plenty of people who buy cars based on curb appeal, there are many investors who have never touched the stock because of headline valuation numbers and a surface-level understanding of competitive dynamics in the automotive industry. Even if the market has correctly determined that Tesla is in the early days of reshaping the automotive industry such that everybody else will be forced to follow, the typical level-headed investor reasons, the stock must have gotten ahead of itself with a valuation like that. Easy money has made speculators forget that the automotive industry is hypercompetitive, cyclical and low margin, and it’s only a matter of time before the incumbents react to stop this little start-up in its tracks, right?

However, making sense of Tesla’s meteoric rise and future prospects requires a comprehensive understanding of what’s under the hood, literally and otherwise. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) offer several important advantages over Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles to consumers. First, BEVs have already become cheaper than their ICE equivalents based on the total cost of ownership (TCO). According to a recent Consumer Reports study, the average BEV owner saves about 50% on maintenance and repair and 60% on fuel costs over the life of their vehicle. Tesla’s most popular models particularly stand out in terms of lifetime savings over the best-selling ICE vehicles in their class:

In addition to a lower cost of ownership, BEVs have the environmental benefits of zero tailpipe emissions (which is estimated to have caused 385,000 annual premature deaths worldwide as of 2015) and the ability to leverage the ongoing transformation of energy grids worldwide to a higher mix of renewable sources. This transformation should continue to accelerate over the next decade, as the cost of new renewable energy capacity has already fallen below fossil fuel power generation and should continue to fall on an exponential cost curve. Most governments around the world have grasped the importance of BEV adoption to achieving long-term goals for decarbonization and energy independence and have put in place various incentives, taxes and scheduled sales bans to further accelerate the transition away from ICE vehicles.

Beyond the cost of ownership and environmental advantages of their electric vehicles, Tesla has a unique organizational advantage as it competes in many more fields than the incumbent automotive OEMs, which rely heavily on outsourcing for non-core components and functions.

Source: Tesla is a Giant Group of Startups that Will Dominate Each Field

While there are a growing number of competitors in the electric vehicle market, none have achieved such a deep level of vertical integration of hardware, software, and services on a global scale. Tesla’s technological advantages have also enabled them to establish leading positions in adjacent industries, such as energy and artificial intelligence, which must be considered for an accurate appraisal of the Company’s value.

Trailing financial metrics have very limited utility when an industry is facing a major upheaval brought on by new technology. To determine the present value of any industry player, we have to start with figuring out what their place in the world will look like in 2030. This requires combing through a sea of often conflicting information to establish a ground truth about the factors that are most likely to shape the future, and extrapolating them to their natural conclusion. Analyzing Tesla in detail from the bottom up is a more challenging approach to take than most are up for, but it is necessary to figure out how we got here and to have a high level of confidence about where we are going. To bring readers up to speed and develop a useful framework for analyzing the future potential of Tesla and other companies within its orbit, I plan to tackle the foundational components of the business, technology, and competitive environment over a series of posts. This may take awhile; be sure to subscribe so you don’t miss anything!

On that note, dear subscribers: If you thought you were here for uncovering obscure global small caps and are wondering whether I have just emerged from a coma or something for spending all my time researching one of the world’s biggest companies with one of the world’s most widely talked about and polarizing stocks, please stick around! I think a deep understanding of Tesla’s business can pay dividends for any investor down the road, whether it fits into your portfolio or not, as many listed companies around the world, large and small, will be impacted by the revolution in transportation and energy that is only just getting started.

For example, suppose your mandate is confined to Asian small caps. If you also knew what was going on at Tesla six months ago, you might have caught part of the 20x rise in 558:HK LK Technology, which makes a strategically critical machine that will go into all of Tesla’s new factories going forward:

I suspect we will dig up a few more of these along the way, before they happen.

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